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RG1

Climate variability processes and extremes

Group Coordination

Rita Cardoso and Ana Machado

Keywords 

  • Regional climate simulations and impacts

  • Compound extreme events

  • Land-atmosphere-ocean feedbacks

  • Statistical and artificial intelligence methods

Scientific Highlights 

Earth Observation: The RG1 was highly successful on the development of new remote sensing retrieving methods aiming at improving land surface temperature, vegetation and drought characterization. A new Google Earth Engine Open-Source Code was developed for Land Surface Temperature estimation and forest fire scars identification from the Landsat and Sentinel series, respectively.

 Selected papers:

  • Pinto MMTrigo RM, Trigo IF, DaCamara CC (2021) A practical method for high-resolution burned area monitoring using Sentinel-2 and VIIRS, Remote Sensing, 13 (91), 1608. DOI: 10.3390/rs13091608

  • Balsamo G, Agusti-Panareda A, Albergel C, Arduini G, Beljaars A, Bidlot J, Blyth E, Bousserez N, Boussetta S, Brown A, Buizza R, Buontempo C, Chevallier F, Choulga M, Cloke H, Cronin MF, Dahoui M, De Rosnay P, Dirmeyer PA, Drusch M, Dutra E, Ek MB, Gentine P, Hewitt H, Keeley SPE, Kerr Y, Kumar S, Lupu C, Mahfouf J-F, McNorton J, Mecklenburg S, Mogensen K, Muñoz-Sabater J, Orth R, Rabier F, Reichle R, Ruston B, Pappenberger F, Sandu I, Seneviratne SI, Tietsche S, Trigo IF, Uijlenhoet R, Wedi N, Woolway RI, Zeng X (2019) Satellite and in situ observations for advancing global earth surface modelling: A review. Remote Sensing, 11 (8), 941. DOI: 10.3390/rs11080942

  • Dutra E, Muñoz‐Sabater J, Boussetta S, Komori T, Hirahara S, Balsamo G (2020) Environmental Lapse Rate for High‐Resolution Land Surface Downscaling: An Application to ERA5, Earth and Space Science, 7(5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EA000984

  • Ermida SLTrigo IF, Hulley G, DaCamara CC (2020) A multi-sensor approach to retrieve emissivity angular dependence over desert regions, Remote Sensing of Environment, 237, 111559. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2019.111559

  • Miranda PMAMateus P (2021) A New Unconstrained Approach to GNSS Atmospheric Water Vapor Tomography, Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (1716), e2021GL094852. DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094852

Selected projects:

  • Ongoing: The LSA SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis) https://lsa-saf.eumetsat.int/en/

  • 2018-2021: HOLMDRIVE – North Atlantic Atmospheric Patterns influence on Western Iberia Climate: From the Lateglacial to the Present, FCT, Alexandre Ramos (PI)

  • 2018-2021: CONTROL – Use of Earth Observations to Model the Surface – Atmosphere Interaction, FCT, Emanuel Dutra (PI)

Modelling: RG1 members took a leading role on the large LANDSAF consortium and an active participation in major networks/consortia (e.g., CORDEX, EC-EARTH, DAMOCLES), strengthening the climate modelling effort on a global and regional scale, actively contributing to some of the most important international modelling consortia, such as EC-EARTH and CORDEX. In this context, RG1 contributed to several relevant Flagship Pilot Studies of CORDEX, which includes the new generation of km-scale models for convection, Land Use and Climate Across Scales and URBan environments and Regional Climate Change. A senior RG1 member led the most important national project of assessment, impacts and adaptation of climate change in years - National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI – which is a reference at national level. In resonance with the modelling effort, land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere processes were examined, opening a new line of research at IDL. We are also internationally well-known for studies on earth observation of land and ocean surface, and high-resolution regional climate modelling, making a particular effort on converging to km-scale modelling. Particularly, a strong effort was made at very high-resolution, for extreme meteorological (e.g. Hurricane Leslie) and fire (e.g. Pedrogão Grande 2017 fire) events using WRF and WRF-Sfire models.

Selected papers:

  • Ban N, Caillaud C, Coppola E, Pichelli E, Sobolowski S, Adinolfi M, Ahrens B, Alias A, Anders I, Bastin S, Belusic D, Berthou S, Brisson E, Cardoso RM, Chan SC, Christensen OB, Fernandez J, Fita L, Frisius T, Gasparac G, Giorgi F, Goergen K, Haugen JE, Hodnebrog O, Kartsios S, Katragkou E, Kendon EJ, Keuler K, Lavin-Gullon A, Lenderink G, Leutwyler D, Lorenz T, Maraun D, Mercogliano P, Milovac J, Panitz HJ, Raffa M, Remedio AR, Schar C, Soares PMM, Srnec L, Steensen BM, Stocchi P, Tolle MH, Truhetz H, Vergara-Temprado J, de Vries H, Warrach-Sagi K, Wulfmeyer V, Zander MJ (2021) The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation, Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w

  • Coppola E, Sobolowski S , Pichelli E, Raffaele F, Ahrens B, Anders I, Ban N, Bastin S, Belda M, Belusic D, Caldas-Alvarez A, Cardoso RM, Davolio S, Dobler A, Fernandez J, Fita L, Fumiere Q, Giorgi F, Goergen K, Güttler I, Halenka T, Heinzeller D, Hodnebrog Ø, Jacob D, Kartsios S, Katragkou E, Kendon E, Khodayar S, Kunstmann H, Knist S, Lavín-Gullón A, Lind P, Lorenz T, Maraun D, Marelle L, van Meijgaard E, Milovac J, Myhre G, Panitz H-J, Piazza M, Raffa M, Raub T, Rockel B, Schär C, Sieck K, Soares PMM, Somot S, Srnec L, Stocchi P, Tölle MH, Truhetz H, Vautard R, de Vries H, Warrach-Sagi K (2020) A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean. Climate Dynamics, 55, 3-34. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

  • Plecha SMSoares PMMSilva-Fernandes SM, Cabos W (2021) On the uncertainty of future projections of Marine Heatwave events in the North Atlantic Ocean, Climate Dynamics, 56 (7-8), 2027-2056. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05529-3

  • Lima DCASoares PMMCardoso RMSemedo A, William C, Sein DV (2021) The Present and Future Offshore Wind Resource in the Southwestern African region, Climate Dynamics, 56 (5-6), 1371-1388. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05536-4

  • Soares PMMLima DCA, Semedo A, Cardoso RM, Cabos W, Sein D (2018) The North African coastal low level wind jet – a high resolution view. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4441-7

 

Selected projects:

  • 2020-2024: Roteiro Nacional para a Adaptação 2100 – Avaliação da vulnerabilidade do território Português às alterações climáticas no século XXI https://rna2100.apambiente.pt/ , EEA, Pedro Soares

  • 2018-2021: LEADING – Soil Use Changes and Global Warming Mitigation, FCT, Rita Cardoso (PI)



Weather driven hazards: Significant advancements were made on fire hazard knowledge, including the proposal of new methods for characterizing fire danger incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) to compute burnt areas. Compound extreme events, within the context of the DAMOCLES and Future4Med Cost Actions, international collaborative consortiums (ROADMAP, AMOTHEC) and national projects (IMDROFLOOD, IMPECAF, FIRECAST, DHEFEUS), were a major theme tackled, focusing on floods, droughts, marine and atmospheric heatwaves and fires, their interdependence and its main atmospheric-land processes and circulations drivers. New AI approaches (Deep Learning and XGBoost) have also been tested to analyse compound extreme events and to downscale climate change information to local scales. These will provide useful interfaces between AI methods, the analysis of extreme or compound events and combined downscaling physical and AI tools based on regional climate information. Relevant climate impact studies were also performed focusing on the association between extreme weather events, agriculture, pollution and health in different areas of the globe.

 Selected papers:

  • Geirinhas JLRusso ACLibonati RSousa PM, Miralles DG, Trigo RM (2021) Recent increasing frequency of compound summer drought and heatwaves in Southeast Brazil, Environmental Research Letters, 16 (3), 034036. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0eb

  • Henin RRamos AM, Pinto JG, Liberato MLR (2021) A ranking of concurrent precipitation and wind events for the Iberian Peninsula, International Journal of Climatology, 41 (2), 1421-1437. DOI: 10.1002/joc.6829

  • Lemos GSemedo A, Hemer M, Menendez M, Miranda PMA (2021) Remote climate change propagation across the oceans-the directional swell signature, Environmental Research Letters, 16 (6), 064080. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac046b

  • Ramos AM, Roca R, Soares PMM, Wilson AM, Trigo RM, Ralph FM (2021) Uncertainty in different precipitation products in the case of two atmospheric river events, Environmental Research Letters, 16 (4), 045012. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abe25b

  • Pinto MMLibonati RTrigo RMTrigo IFDaCamara CC (2020) A deep learning approach for mapping and dating burned areas using temporal sequences of satellite images, ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 160, 260-274. DOI: 10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2019.12.014

Selected projects:

Research Outlook 

RG1 research is focused on understanding the impacts of climate variability, climate extremes and climate change in the coupled Earth system ocean-land-atmosphere and devising adaptation strategies. This encompasses evaluating the influence of historic and future climate conditions on different sectoral areas (agriculture, forests, renewable energies, and health) and ecosystems (vegetation, marine, air pollution), proposing mitigation and adaptation strategies. The group is a key contributor to regional and global climate modelling studies and Earth-system model development, participating in the main international initiatives. RG1 also includes expertise in applied research, mainly concerning climate and remote sensing services, ocean margin processes and renewable energy.

RG1 keeps focusing on modelling and analysing of different dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean and their interactions, as well as their variability and extremes, under a climate change perspective. Research will continue to cover a wide spectrum of topics, from large-scale dynamics to local extremes, global to regional earth system modelling, paleoclimatology, eastern boundary systems dynamics, regional climate simulations and impacts, compound extreme events, land/atmosphere or land/ocean interplay and atmospheric circulations, which are of high relevance for the definition of the regional climate in coastal regions. RG1's efforts have been instrumental in pioneering the development of innovative combined physical-AI methodologies, and continue to strengthen the efforts on enhancing the precision of local climate change capture and satellite surface monitoring techniques.